SourceWatch needs your financial support to survive and thrive. If you've found this information on the people, organizations, and issues shaping the public agenda helpful, please make a tax-deductible donation now.

Global warming skeptics

From SourceWatch

(Redirected from Climate change sceptics)
Jump to: navigation, search


This is part of the Center for Media & Democracy's climate change project.
Main article:
Sub-articles:

Global warming skeptics -- also referred to as "climate change skeptics" or "anthropogenic (human-induced) global warming skeptics" -- generally refers to individuals or groups who disagree with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. IPCC reports are based on peer reviewed and published scientific literature, and include input from more than 2500 climate scientists.[1]

Skeptics' disputes with the IPCC and advocates of action on climate change are commonly along one or more of the following lines:

  • There is no conclusive evidence that climate change is happening;
  • The changes in measured temperatures are part of the natural cycle;
  • Even if the changes are human induced, the scale is not sufficiently large to make changes beyond sensible "least cost" measures; and
  • The economic impact of making substantial cuts in greenhouse gas emissions on the scale suggested by the IPCC or other groups is too large.
  • The dire predictions of global warming are based on computer models, but those models don't include such highly correlated data as sun spots and global temperature changes.

While some skeptics challenge a particular technical point or approach in the IPCC reports - for instance, that there is global warming but it is not due to human activity - others have a more sweeping rejection of climate change science and proposed responses in general.

Contents

Common threads of Climate Skeptics Arguments

In a paper reviewing the common arguments of the global warming skeptics, Stefan Rahmstorf, Professor of Physics of the Oceans at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, noted that "the various climate sceptics hold very different positions. We can distinguish trend skeptics (who deny there is is harmless or even beneficial). Representatives of the various skeptics' camps quarrel, sometimes ferociously, in internet forums."[2]

'Trend skeptics', he suggested, are "a gradually vanishing breed" as public understanding of the reality of global warming has risen. These sceptics commonly claim that the surface temperature measurements have been distorted by ther proximity to urban areas, which is referred to as the 'urban heat island effect'. 'In fact, the measured trends have already been adjusted to allow for this effect by comparing adjacent urban and rural stations. The warming above the oceans as measured by ships, the global retreat of glaciers, and the declining Arctic sea ice provide further evidence against this claim," wrote Rahmstorf. These sceptics also often claim that satellite measurements show little, if any, warming trend since the data was first collected in 1979. After allowing for various factors which make direct comparison between data sets difficult, Rahmstorf wrote that the data "show trends between 0.08°C and 0.26°C per decade, compared to 0.17°C per decade found in surface measurements.[2]

'Attribution skeptics' on the other hand argue that while warming is occurring, it can't be attributed to human activities. These skeptics argue that Co2 emissions originate from the oceans or that increases in CO2 do not result in warming. "The oceans have certainly not released CO2 into the atmosphere; on the contrary, they have absorbed some of the extra fossil CO2 load. (Incidentally, this is leading to an acidification of sea water, causing considerable damage to coral reefs and other marine organisms, even without any climate change)," Rahmstorf wrote. While there are uncertainties about the feedbacks caused by increased greenhouse gases, Rahmstorf noted that "many studies using different approaches have provided increasingly hard evidence that the most likely value of the “climate sensitivity” (i.e. the equilibrium response of the climate to a doubling of the CO2 concentration) is close to 3°C. This results independently both from our physical understanding of the various feedbacks (which can be observed in today’s climate, e.g. in the seasonal cycle) and from an analysis of the role played by CO2 during past climate changes."[2]

He also noted that arguing that strong feedbacks from increased CO2 could not also claim that warming was caused by other factors such as solar activity. Rahmstorf notes that "solar variations cannot explain the warming in the 20th century. For one thing, they are not large enough; the radiative effect of anthropogenic greenhouse gases is by now several times stronger. And while reconstructions of solar activity do indicate a rise until 1940, they show no significant trend since then. The same is true of measurements of cosmic rays."[2]

The 'impact skeptics' argue that there are positive consequences from global warming, such as an extension of the range of agriculture or increased productivity. "In the absence of climate protection measures, we will probably see a warming by several degrees in this century. The most recent comparable period of major global warming occurred when the last ice age ended ~15,000 years ago: at that time, the climate warmed by approx. 5°C in global mean. This warming had serious implications for man and ecosystems. But the process unfolded over a period of 5,000 years – humankind is now threatening to bring about a similarly large climate change within the space of a century. This extraordinarily rapid change would most likely exceed the adaptive capacity of man and nature," Rahmstorf wrote.[2]

See also Climate change skeptics/common claims and rebuttal.

Skeptics Group Discounts Skeptics Arguments

An internal 1995 document (pdf) of the Global Climate Coalition (GCC) -- an industry front group that disbanded in 2002 -- reviewed some of the "contrarian" arguments used by Richard Lindzen, Robert Jastrow and Patrick Michaels and other climate change skeptics. The document, which was obtained as part of a court action against the automobile industry[3] concluded that of the arguments reviewed:

"The contrarian theories raise interesting questions about our total understanding of climate processes, but they do not offer convincing arguments against the conventional model of greenhouse gas emission-induced climate change. Jastrow's hypothesis about the role of solar variability and Michaels' questions about the temperature record are not convincing arguments against any conclusion that we are currently experiencing warming as the result of greenhouse gas emissions. However, neither solar variability nor anomalies in the temperature record offer a mechanism for off-setting the much larger rise in temperature which might occur if the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases were to double or quadruple."
"Lindzen' s hypothesis that any warming would create more rain which would cool and dry the uper troposphere did offer a mechanism for balancing the effect of increased greenhouse gases. However, the data supporting this hypothesis is weak, and even Lindzen has stopped presenting it as an alternative to the conventional model of climate change."[4]

Global Warming's Deadly Denial

Reviewing the continued campaign by climate change skeptics, David McKnight, an associate professor at the University of New South Wales (Australia), notes that there several reasons why companies such as Exxon have had some success playing the global warming denial card. "First, the implications of the science are frightening. Shifting to renewable energy will be costly and disruptive. Second, doubt is an easy product to sell. Climate denial tells us what we all secretly want to hear. Third, science is portrayed as political orthodoxy rather than objective knowledge, a curiously postmodern argument," he writes. While the tobacco industry is often referred to as the template for the fossil fuel industry's campaign, McKnight argues that there is an important distinction. "There are no 'smoke-free areas' on the planet. Climate denial may turn out to be the world's most deadly PR campaign," he concludes. [5]

UK Split Ruling on Climate Change Skeptics

In July 2008, the British government's media regulator, Ofcom, issued a split ruling on "The Great Global Warming Swindle," a film commissioned and broadcast by Channel 4. Ofcom received 265 complaints about the film, including "a detailed 'group complaint' from scientists and concerned individuals that ran to 176 pages and accused Channel 4 of seriously misleading viewers." [6]

Ofcom found that Channel 4 broke impartiality guidelines and the film misrepresented statements by former British government scientist David King, in a scene with global warming skeptic Fred Singer. Ofcom also found that the film unfairly treated the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and MIT professor Carl Wunsch. However, Ofcom ruled that the program did not "cause harm or offence" by "materially" misleading viewers. Ofcom also said that its impartiality rules did not apply to the majority of the film, because the rules require balance on "matters of political or industrial controversy" and human-induced climate change has "been almost universally accepted by governments around the world." [6]

Funding

Ross Gelbspan, journalist and author, wrote a 1995 article in Harper's Magazine argues that the climate change skeptics "assert flatly that their science is untainted by funding. Nevertheless, in this persistent and well-funded campaign of global warming denial they have become interchangeable ornaments on the hood of a high-powered engine of disinformation. Their dissenting opinions are amplified beyond all proportion through the media while the concerns of the dominant majority of the world's scientific establishment are marginalized." [1]

Risk averse skeptics

In November 2004, climate change skeptic Richard Lindzen was quoted saying he'd be willing to bet that the earth's climate will be cooler in 20 years than it is today. When British climate researcher James Annan contacted him, however, Lindzen would only agree to take the bet if Annan offered a 50-to-1 payout. Subsequent offers of a wager were also refused by Pat Michaels, Chip Knappenberger, Piers Corbyn, Myron Ebell, Zbigniew Jaworowski, Sherwood Idso and William Kininmonth. At long last, however, Annan has persuaded Russian solar physicists Galina Mashnich and Vladimir Bashkirtsev to take a $10,000 bet. "There isn't much money in climate science and I'm still looking for that gold watch at retirement," Annan says. "A pay-off would be a nice top-up to my pension." [2]

Critiquing Skeptics as "Distraction Strategy"

In a blog ahead of the COP15 conference, Senator Christine Milne, Deputy Leader of the Australian Greens and former Vice-President of the IUCN, wrote that "Around the world, governments are explicitly linking the extreme weather events we've seen – heat waves, bushfires, drought and floods – to climate change and using that link to push for the limited action they are willing to take. Attacking climate sceptics for holding back action has also become a favoured mechanism for claiming the moral high ground in the climate debate. This claim to be guided by the science while espousing weak and scientifically unsupportable targets, this climate hypocrisy, is more dangerous than true climate scepticism because it is more insidious."[7]

Just prior to the COP15 conference, British Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, told the Guardian that "With only days to go before Copenhagen we mustn't be distracted by the behind-the-times, anti-science, flat-earth climate sceptics. We know the science. We know what we must do. We must now act and close the 5bn-tonne gap. That will seal the deal."[8]

Individual skeptics

Organizational skeptics

SourceWatch resources

See the related SourceWatch article, Climate change/Related SourceWatch Resources

External links

Articles and resources

Related SourceWatch articles

References

  1. ↑ "About IPCC", Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, accessed April 2009.
  2. ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 Stefan Rahmstorf, "The climate sceptics", Munich Re, Weather catastrophes and climate change, undated but approx 2004.
  3. ↑ Andrew C. Revkin, "Industry Ignored Its Scientists on Climate", New York Times, April 23, 2009.
  4. ↑ Global Climate Coalition, "Primer on Climate Change Science· Final Draft", January 18, 1996, pages 16-17.
  5. ↑ "The Climate Change Smoke Screen", Sydney Morning Herald, August 2, 2008
  6. ↑ 6.0 6.1 Owen Gibson and David Adam, "Watchdog's verdict on Channel 4 climate film angers scientists: Regulator accused of letting makers off hook; Rules were broken 'but viewers were not misled'," The Guardian (UK), July 22, 2008.
  7. ↑ "Crisis rhetoric has to be matched with crisis action", Climate Thinkers Blog, November 2009.
  8. ↑ # Damian Carrington and Suzanne Goldenberg, "Gordon Brown attacks 'flat-earth' climate change sceptics", The Guardian, December 4, 2009.

External resources

External articles

Retrieved from "http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Global_warming_skeptics"
Personal tools

Be a SourceWatcher!

Enter your e-mail address to get the Center for Media and Democracy's free weekly e-newsletter.